Average UK house prices.



The data used to create the graph above is publicly and freely available from the Nationwide Building Society. It's a graph that is very valuable to timing when I buy a property, and it will be to you once you have finished reading this.

Now that the UK government can no longer hide the fact that house prices are falling, lets see how we can use this to our advantage.

The Last Crash: 1989 - 1996
It took 7 years for the crash to bottom out (B) , wiping out 30% of the price of an average home in the uk. If anyone was convinced by the government to buy on the downslope (A) they risked massive falls in the value of their homes and also negative equity or even repossession! You should never buy on a downward slope as you simply don't know when you are going to hit the bottom.



This Crash: 2008 -
We have JUST started our decline this time around, the tipping point was 2008. Point (C) is the current point in our crash, the continuing black line is there for illustration as to what might happen next, based on the last crash. I am confident that we are going in to a dip, I just don't know how long or deep this crash is going to be this time around.
You can at least agree that if you buy now, you are staring in to a chasm with no idea how far you are going to fall.



When to buy:
The best time to buy is after the bottoms (B,D), but "what if you miss the bottom?" I hear you say. It does not matter! Even if you miss the bottom by 1 year, as long as you are buying on the UP slope you wont be a loser, all you have to do is monitor the data above and sit back and wait - my personal opinion is that you have at least 5 years - think of the deposit you could save!



Green shoots of recovery:
You should now understand why when the government talk about the green shoots of recovery it is a complete embarrassment. Why do the government want to trick you in to buying on to the down slope? They are not happy only with increasing your taxes to bail out the banks, they want you to also PERSONALLY sign up to massive amounts of mortgage debt to save the banks. Money , which could be better spent on your family.

We are only at point C - yet labour are actively telling people to buy before prices start going up again.



Well - now you know, the next time a politician on TV tells you to work as a mortgage slave for the rest of your life, you can tell them where to go - just keep tracking the above graph.



Obviously, please apply the above information to suit your personal circumstances. For instance, if you are David Beckham you wont need a mortgage and will be able to buy outright at any time. It's all about minimizing the amount of interest you have stolen from you by the banks



IMPORTANT. Do not let ANYONE, especial in the property industry (this includes, magazines and newspapers and some websites) tell you when the bottom is, a lot will use the language "we THINK they MAY have bottomed out".

Check the Halifax data YOURSELF!

Negative equity and many years of debt repayment should not be decided by some suits opinion.



Data and historical data can be found here, http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/HousingResearch.asp

Fire up that spread sheet! Do your own research!

Never heard so much twaddle, bull and carp. I am enraged that the powers that be think the public could be
so gullible.

Gordon Brown claims this, and lots of Journalists under the control of our glorious leader say they think this.
But, here I am - laughing out loud as the public turn against the government and serve up some scorn
on rubbish reporting.

We all knew it was coming, the question that needs to be asked why didn't the highly paid people spot it?

Corruption I think, and they should all be investigated by the police.

And journalists like the following should be given the sack.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/stephanieflanders/2009/01/so_its_official_the_uk.html#commentsanchor

Here are a few choice comments, read the rest at the link above.


# 1. At 11:41am on 23 Jan 2009, interestrateripoff wrote:

Again the press lies, this was seen and was forecast.

I predicted this would happen.

www.housepricecrash.co.uk predicted it would happen.

What you actually mean it that no one who's paid huge sums of money predicted it.

Question is are these people worth the money.

Why is the BBC using govt propaganda and calling this a downturn admit what it is a recession or a brownturn.

The amateur economists have the upper hand.

Perhaps the BBC should concentrate on what Roubini is predicting?

Complain about this comment
# 2. At 11:42am on 23 Jan 2009, rcrobjohn wrote:

Forgive me for saying so but many people knew the recession was approaching. I remember having lunch with a director of well known US Investment bank way back in 2006 and he forecast what we are seeing today. It seemed unlikely at the time but as sure as night follows day it was coming. We have seen nothing yet - sadly. Optimism and confidence are needed now, not to end the recession but to bear what is to come.

Complain about this comment
# 3. At 11:43am on 23 Jan 2009, penguina333 wrote:

"But from the standpoint of even a few months ago, it's a bolt from the blue. "

Sorry but any economist who didn't see this coming years ago is useless.

How was it not possible to see the biggest debt bubble in history and see that this would lead eventually to a depression?

Complain about this comment
# 4. At 11:45am on 23 Jan 2009, MrRanter wrote:

Tell me again why the "experts" get paid so much?

My dog could do better.

Complain about this comment

<quote>

Reporter to Brown.

"That this is an open-ended commitment for which the tax-payer will be ultimately responsible. That it has the whiff of printing money. That it is another bank bailout."

Brown to reporter:


"I would be very cautious if I were you about making such allegations about this scheme"

</quote>

I did not have time to watch the live broad cast from Gordonron this morning, probably a good
thing as I would have put my foot through the tv - the above quote I read on another forum -
Gordon Brown is a dangerous idiot, Labours spin machine has spun so much bullcarp
that the UK public is finally waking up, reporters are asking the difficult questions.
Gordonron is now resorting to threats, I expect this reporter will soon be looking for asylum in
Switzerland.

Gordon - You are not going to be able to silence all of us.


The UK needs change, I urge all of you to vote for something completely different at the next election,
lets send a clear signal and vote Liberal Democrats.



Edit: Instant hero status for the next reporter to throw a shoe at Gordon Brown.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/savings/article5487580.ece


Very well put by http://forum.globalhousepricecrash.com/index.php?s=&showtopic=46207&view=findpost&p=455018

"
We're totally *censored*ed whatever we do (as savers).

Option 1: Take it out of the bank - they'll pull a "Weimar" on us.

Option 2: Leave it in the bank - the banks will collapse taking our cash with them

Option 3: Leave it in the bank and the banks survive - the government will inflate the *censored* out of it.

Option 4: Buy anything before that piece of paper really is just 'a piece of worthless paper'



....Maybe Option 4 is what the government is forcing us to do

"


Why should banks use YOUR money to make a return, then not give you a cut.
Teach these vermin a lesson, move your cash to an account that does, or remove your deposit...

Creditcrunch.co.uk is pleased to launch a new service for readers, which monitors major news sources bringing you the
latest headlines and links to the full story.


Here is the link, or click on the live news button at the top.

http://www.creditcrunch.co.uk/newsfinder/

BBC live radio, a concerned father called up to tell us that the vouchers he got from Zavvi for his children were refused
at the stores - as he was classed as a creditor. In my opinion these paper vouchers are a promise by Zavvi to hold
your goods, what ever you choose them to be, until you turn up boxing day to collect YOUR property. In effect, by refusing
to honor these promissory notes, Zavvi has already taken payment for goods AND is now RE-SELLING the same goods,
selling the same goods twice! To claw back as much money as possible.

I'm not to familier with the law, but, if I was a holder of Zavvi vouchers.. I would at least call the police to make a report that
my goods are held by Zavvi, then after making the report - I would head down to Zavvi, collect goods to the value of the vouchers,
head to the till, tell the attendand "here is my voucher, here are my goods... i am going to walk out wiht my property, if the alarms go
off then sue me". I some *censored* of a security guard then tried to stop me, I would give him hell.

I am sure that this man is not a unique case, and many Children up and down the country have had part of their Christmas spoiled.

Did you get vouchers for Christmas? Did you give vouchers to your loved ones for Christmas?

Take my advice, go out and exchange them for GOODs NOW! They already have your cash.

Before the stores you are going to shop in go the same way as Adams, Woolworths, Zavvi and the rest... Remember,
at least 30 retails companies are set to go bust in the New Year, do you feel Lucky?

Parasites, the lot of them. Look at how, YOUR tax money is being stolen from you.

Goldman Sachs, which switched from being an investment bank to a bank holding company in September, lost £1.36 billion in the final quarter of this year.

They went cap in hand, squealing like ikle igle piggies - we need money, we need money.

Well, they got their state TAX funded hand out and as soon as they got what they wanted they paid out the equivalent in bonuses.

And here is the rub, this is their defense

"The firm defended the practice of paying out such bonuses, arguing it helped it to "attract and motivate" the best people."

Well if they bloody well did have the right people with the right motivation, they would not have made such a big loss in the first place.

And to take YOUR money, raise YOUR taxes while YOU are struggling to make ends meet, Johny banker is sipping champaign and sailing on a yacht somewhere of the back of YOUR cash.

AND to boot, if these pigs had not fattened themselves up so much from the public trough, they are raising the interest rate on YOUR credit card, and mortgage debt - given half the chance they will repossess your house too!

AND WHAT'S MORE!!! IF they had the money in the first place to pay all those bonuses, then... they really did not need to STEAL from the tax payer at all.

Banksters, the lot of them. And Gordon Brown is letting them get away with it.

Anyone else outraged?! Your bank charges are going up, to pay the banks, and your taxes are going up, to pay the banks - you're getting shafted at both ends. Tell me, who benefits, well its certainly not you or I.

I can smell revolution in the air, and the banksters will be first up against the wall.

And across the industry I can smell FRAUD on a scale never before seen - wasn't there a story on a special police force investigating bank FRAUD and bringing to justice the people responsible for bringing down the banking system?

FRAUD FRAUD FRAUD

Read more here.

http://money.uk.msn.com/investing/news/article.aspx?cp-documentid=11973572

Another popular myth, blasted about my the likes of Kursty Allsop is that lower house prices only
affect you if you are selling your house, and that if you are in it for the long term you have nothing
to worry about.


Oh how WRONG could "Property Experts" be, they have no idea the world of pain they have lead people to!

Blindly adding this misinformation to their list of reasons why it is a good idea to buy a house at any time, thousands of first time buyers marched on not thinking about the consequences.

This week, debtors of the Abbey bank received a gentle reminder of their contractual obligation that if their houses fell to far past their original valuation at the time of taking out their mortgage, they would have to make up the difference by paying a lump sum up front.

I don't think that people can afford to do this, having "got on the ladder at all costs".

Abbey has said it has no plans to use the clause to force borrowers to do so but it did not guarantee that it would not do so in future. But in all honesty, with the sheer steepness of the house price falls we have already seen, the collapse of the lending market and the gloomy recession on the horizon - banks may have no choice but to ask for £1000s or reposes their customers homes.

Again, does any of this seem familiar to the people who were in the last recession?

No one ever seems to learn.

And while house prices were rising (unsustainably), no one wanted to listen - and most people treated you like a leper for suggesting otherwise.

I seem to be wearing my "Told you so" T-shirt more and more often.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7781043.stm

Thanks to Secret Squirrel for bringing this to attention.
Get a move on and send out your claims, don't get distracted by all the Christmas fun.


http://www.creditcrunch.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=1369&pid=3222&st=0&#entry3222

Quite difficult to find this via google... does not show up high in rankings when searching for credit crunch... shame as there is some nice advice, please visit the following link to the Citizens Advice Bureau.

http://www.adviceguide.org.uk/index/whats_new_oct08_how_to_survive_the_credit_crunch.htm

Household finances have been badly stretched in the past year as the costs of energy, food and borrowing money have soared. But there are ways to help yourself and organisations to help you cope if you are struggling. Here are some simple tips to help you get on top of things:

1. Don't bury your head in the sand

Ignoring your debt problems will only make them worse. Don’t ignore calls or letters from the people you owe money to (your creditors).

Contact them to explain why you’re having problems. The sooner you do this, the more options you'll have for solving your financial problems.

2. Get advice

There are many organisations which offer free and independent money advice such as Citizens Advice, Shelter, National Debtline, and the Consumer Credit Counselling Service. Their debt advisers can assess your situation and work out the best course of action for you. For details of organisations which can help, go to the bottom of this page.

3. Pay your priority debts first

There are some debts you need to pay first before others, because the consequences of not paying them can be much more serious. For example, mortgage or rent debts are a priority as if you don’t pay these you could lose your home. Debt advisers can help you plan your budget and pay your priority debts first.

4. Pay what you can each month

Work out how much money you've got coming in and going out of your household on essential expenses like food and bills. Then work how much you've got left over to pay your creditors. If you can't afford to pay back all the money you owe, work out how much you can afford and offer to pay this. A debt adviser can help you do this.

5. Maximise your income

Are you getting all the money you're entitled to?

There may be benefits or tax credits you can get such as Pension Credit or Disability Living Allowance which you haven't claimed. Working Tax Credit is an in-work benefit which is not just available to people with children. You might be able to get it if you work enough hours and are disabled or your income is low enough, even if you don't have children. You may be able to get Council Tax Benefit or Housing Benefit to help you pay your council tax and rent. You don't necessarily have to be out of work to get these benefits. You may be able to get help with your health costs such as prescription charges and dental costs. You may be able to claim help with education costs such as school meals and clothing.

You may be able to get a grant to help you pay for things like fitting home insulation and improving energy efficiency. This can help cut down the fuel bills.

Your gas and electricity supplier may be able to help you if you have fuel debts.

To find out if you can get help, visit the British Gas Energy Trust website at: www.britishgasenergytrust.org.uk or the EDF Energy Trust website at: www.edfenergytrust.org.uk.

There are also some charities which give grants to people to help pay their bills or buy essential items. You can find a list of these charities on the Turn 2 Us website at: www.turn2us.org.uk.

An adviser can help you maximise your income. For details of organisations which can help, go to the bottom of this page.

6. Make savings on your household expenses

Look carefully at your spending and see if there is anything you are able to cut down on. For example, you could shop around for a cheaper gas or electricity provider, or look at cheaper mortgage or insurance providers.

You can find more information about changing your gas and electricity suppliers from the website of the consumer watchdog, Consumer Focus at: www.consumerfocus.org.uk.

To find out more about how to save money on financial products such as mortgages and insurance, go to the website of financial watchdog the Financial Services Authority at: www.moneymadeclear.fsa.gov.uk.

7. Think twice about taking out a loan to pay off all your debts

You may end up paying back a lot more than you borrowed and at very high interest rates. You may not be able to afford the repayments and the loan may be secured against your home which you could then lose.

8. Facing possession proceedings? Don’t panic

Always attend the court hearings yourself. Court proceedings do not mean that you will automatically lose your home. The court process acts as a final check to make sure repossession is the last resort. Some courts have advice desks which can provide last minute assistance.

9. Take care with “mortgage rescue schemes”

Selling your home and renting it back might seem like a quick fix to your debt problems. But, many of these schemes offer very little security. You could end up paying very high rent or even being evicted. These schemes are also not regulated so you will not have access to the same protections as a mortgage holder.

10. Don’t abandon your property

If you are struggling with mortgage repayments you may be tempted to send the keys to your lender or abandon your property. Don’t do this without advice. You could still be responsible for the debt on the property and may be pursued for it years later.

Further help